As of today, Russia has cut off natural gas (heat, cooking) for the Ukraine, a repeat performance from the Winter of 2006, based once again on an increase in price charged to the Ukraine, in fact this time a doubling of price. This is what I and many others (including the US government) foresee will be typical in the oil arena as oil demand rises past oil supply some time in the next five to ten years.
Natural gas is under pressure to replace some uses of oil worldwide due to its somewhat greater availability, and the peak of natural gas production appears to be set for the next 5 to 10 years (one article, another article), while the peak for oil production has already passed according to leading analysts. The recent rise and fall in oil prices appear to have been instigated by speculators but could only have occurred in an environment where oil production and refinement was already at a maximum and could not increase supply.
The true collision of declining oil supply and rising demand (world demand continued to increase slightly throughout 2008 due primarily to China, despite the global recesssion) will lead to a repeat of the jump in oil prices, but without a visible escape route other than massive migration to renewable energy sources, electricity-based transportation, and other major infrastructure changes. World trends can be seen through 2007 in a comprehensive BP report.
Food and water supplies and costs are also stressed and unstable but so far only weak and relatively unarmed groups of people are being affected, and the world has been able to provide some aid to them, though not enough.
Food supplies depend on fertilizer use, harvesting, refinement, transportation, and cooking, all of which are linked directly to the availability of fossil fuels (oil and natural gas). Drinking water supplies, while linked less directly to energy availability, are dependent on purification and sometimes on transportation (during shortages, for example), so they are also dependent on fossil fuel supplies as well as other factors. Water used to irrigate land that is no longer fertile takes away directly from drinking water, linking the issues of food, water, and fertilizer. Today's fertilizers as used in the "green revolution" are made using natural gas and, indirectly, oil energy.
The water shortage, while long prevalent in Africa and some parts of southern Asia, is now becoming visible to the world in China, though many people in the Western world believe incorrectly that the central government of China has these problems under its control through forced migrations and other social engineering. As reported, "the water table is dropping one meter per year due to overpumping, and the Chinese admit that 300 cities are running short. They are diverting water from agriculture and farmers are going out of business."
Perhaps I am looking for an optimistic response as my anxiety over the future in 5 or 10 years is significant. The United States, where I live, and Canada, form one of the better-positioned regions of the world due to good water supply, low population density, natural gas supply, and moderate to cool temperature ranges, but since I am and all of us are citizens of the world, I wonder how the world will look as survival becomes a more predominant issue.
Any encouraging words out there?
Related external links:
Drinking Water for the World's Poorest
Interactive Fresh Water Map
"Tapped Out"
World food procurement map
World Food Program
World Water Day, 2008
Fossil Fuel
PT
Wavehunter (William Coffin)
