Living in Peace and Wisdom on our Planet

My neighbor is now leasing a Hummer.

After chatting, it sounds like a good deal, because it is big enough for the family of five, used only for short trips to town and back, and had a very low monthly lease.

So, I'm now wondering about buying a Hummer, as odd as that may sound. One might think that this is an automatic "NO WAY!", but I like to leave my mind open to explore and consider all options, so here we go.

Hummer vs. Prius

Hummer H3 2008 – $31,340 retail - $6,000 rebates = $25,340
Toyota Prius 2008 – $21,500 retail

Miles per Gallon: Hummer - 15, Prius - 46 (Source: FuelEconomy.gov)

Ten Year Fuel Cost for 20,000 miles/year at $4.25/gal

Hummer = $56,667
Prius = $18,478

That is how we drove both of our current cars, about 20,000 per year for the first 10 years. Both cars now have over 230,000 miles on each one.

12,000 Miles Times Five Years

Let's look at a few less miles:

Five Year Fuel Cost for 12,000 miles/year at $4.25/gal

Hummer = $17,000
Prius = $5,543

Overall, I think if I was going to buy a new car, I'd still take the Prius over the Hummer, particularly because the price of gasoline is not going to remain at $4.25, but it is going to go up every year. Let's take a look at that for a moment.

If gasoline increases in price at 15% per year, which is probably a modest estimate, then, using the same 12,000 per year...

Savings on Gas After...

5 Years – $14,540 – Gas up to $7/gal
10 Years – $43,785 – Gas up to $14/gal
15 Years – $102,608 – Gas up to $28/gal

Of course, the 15 year figure couldn't be a single person in the car, because gasoline would be $28 per gallon, and it would take four people sharing all the rides to make it affordable. In all likelyhood, not only would the number of people in the car increase, but the number of miles driven would significantly decrease as well.

My Commute of 14 Miles

My commute to and from work is 14 miles, so for 180 days (a school year), I put about 2,500 miles on the car each year. At my current 25 miles per gallon, that is 100 gallons per year. But let's look at the cost for one week... that would be 70 miles per week, about three gallons of fuel.

At $7/gal that's $21/week or
At $14/gal that's $42/week
At $28/gal, that's $84/week
At $56/gal, that's $168/week
At $112/gal, that's $336/week

Let's imagine that I have at most $10,000 per year that I could spend on gasoline. My single-car fuel limit would be $277 per week. Before I got to that point, I'd certainly be flagging down cars that were headed towards work, and finding someone with whom to share the ride, and the costs.

This $277/week may not take long to get to. The rate of increase in the cost of gasoline could be anywhere from 15% per year to upwards 80% per year (given the rate of increase of oil prices since the start of the year). This gives me a range of as long as 22 years, down to 4 years, that I could drive my own car, by myself, if I'm willing and able to spend up to $10,000 in fuel to do so.

Driving Alone in a Prius

How much longer could I drive a Prius over my 25 mpg car?

Let's imagine I could get twice the mileage out of a Prius.

The range is now as long as 27 years, to as little as 5 years. In other words, while the Prius would save me 50% on my fuel bill, it would only keep me driving on my own for one to five more years. Of course, that is just me alone in the car.

Sharing Rides

Let's imagine I can find three others who are willing to spend the exact same amount as me to follow the same route. That means we'd have $1,111 per week for fuel. How long can we share rides?

With my current 25 mpg car, the range would be extended by anywhere from ten years, to as little as two years. With the Prius, it happens to be exactly the same result, sharing rides would allow an additional two to ten years of driving, depending on how fast fuel prices rise.

Human Power

My workplace is only seven miles from home. According to a quick test on our treadmill, I can walk between three and five miles per hour. At first, this would certianly be on the low end, and it would take me over two hours to get to work, but I could improve that to about 90 minutes, which isn't really much different from some commuters from the exurbs today.

More likely, I would ride a bike, and I probably could get to work in under a half hour, which is again, not to bad. I think that before gas is $50/gallon, I'd certainly be riding my bike on most days, and just driving on days where biking would be dangerous.

Moped

I believe there is a moped that I could buy for about $1,000 new that would get around 120 MPG. How would that do?

Well, again, it would certainly save me money, and I'd be able to drive it for between 34 and 6 years, depending on the speed of increase in gas prices.

That is at least two years longer than my current car, although the carpooling in the Prius is actually better as far as far as per person gas mileage is concerned.

Another option is a bicycle with a small gas or electric motor, that can assist on going up and down hills, and propel the bicycle at a constant 20 mph on the flats.


Back to Reality

In reality, the likelyhood of me being able to afford $10,000 per year just to get back and forth to work would be extremely unlikely. As the costs of heating fuel, food, and electricity increase, I'd have less money available for fuel. I'd certainly be riding my bike much earlier, and I might even skip the ride sharing in favor of that.

In any event, peak oil is going to cause a major shift in the way in which we get around and how far we can go.

Shrinking Commute Radius

Another way to look at the situation is what radius I could drive to work. Right now, with my $10,000 budget, I could theoretically commute 170 miles to work, one way. I don't know why I would do that, but I read of a man who was commuting something like that and so it is within the realm of possibility.

The interesting part is what happens to the radius of commute as gas prices continue to rise. Each year, the distance that is reasonable shrinks. Once it falls within the three miles range, I would say that the car is effectively dead, because people would simply ride bikes or even walk.

We've seen stories of this already happening, where people are quitting their jobs, or moving closer to work, because the cost of the commute is rising too high. A couple weeks ago, we also saw this chart from the New York Times which shows which areas will be impacted hardest and first as gasoline prices continue to rise. This impacts those with the lowest income first.

The Death of Cars

This puts the death of the 25 mpg car, for the use in commuting to work, between 30 years out, and as quick as only seven years from now. In fact, the use of that vehicle for anything would most likely be completely finished within a few years after that.

For the 50 mpg car, another one to four years would be left in their lives. Even a 100 mpg car would add only another one to four years on top of that.

Is it worth buying a Prius in this case? Well, it would certainly be nice to be able to drive an extra few years, but it makes more sense to me to start looking at that bicycle with the electric power assist.

I think this line of thinking is quite scary because it doesn't look like it will be long before the world changes for us. This was simply an analysis of gasoline prices and commutes. What about the ability to import food at $20/gallon? What about the cost of home heating fuel?

The future feels like it is coming up fast, and it is not the rosey picture that most people think it to be.